Snow Sweet Snow #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PuckChampwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
IVY
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Copy · 1 game
Underlordoften banned
Copy · 1 game
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
287 picks · 572 bans
Void Spirit
256 picks · 324 bans
Mars
226 picks · 405 bans
Earth Spirit
213 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
187 picks · 338 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 572 bans
Wraith King
180 picks · 234 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 73%
Hero pool strength61% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:29
IVY 12%PuckChamp 88%
The model gave 88% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 20:08.
Game 2prediction correct25:34
IVY 12%PuckChamp 88%
The model gave 88% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 29:59.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 88%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2