IVY vs Team Bald Reborn — prediction DPC2S—ЗЕ 2 · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3

result vs prediction

IVYloss 1:2

series probability

39%61%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Team Bald Rebornwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Marsoften banned

TheBloodySky · 16 games

38%

Spirit Breakeroften banned

TheBloodySky · 11 games

27%

Medusasignature

Lowskill · 10 games

70%

Weaveroften banned

jmn- · 10 games

30%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Copy · 8 games

50%

Kunkkaoften banned

Lowskill · 8 games

Tinyoften banned

Lowskill · 8 games

50%

Pangolieroften banned

Qupe · 7 games

43%

Team Bald Reborn

Pangolieroften banned

Rajjix · 7 games

29%

Death Prophetoften banned

Excalibur · 6 games

33%

Iooften banned

Eixn · 6 games

50%

Nyx Assassinsignature

Pablo · 6 games

67%

Hoodwink

Pablo · 5 games

40%

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

Eixn · 5 games

20%

Queen of Painoften banned

Excalibur · 5 games

60%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Excalibur · 5 games

20%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

445 picks · 268 bans

56%

Mars

397 picks · 546 bans

55%

Weaver

323 picks · 409 bans

53%

Death Prophet

316 picks · 581 bans

53%

Tiny

300 picks · 335 bans

50%

Queen of Pain

292 picks · 460 bans

53%

Ember Spirit

273 picks · 382 bans

51%

Kunkka

268 picks · 488 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)38% vs 30%

Hero pool strength53% Team Bald Reborn

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total61% Team Bald Reborn

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct7:24

IVY 44%Team Bald Reborn 56%

The model gave 56% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 26:33.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo