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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Bald Rebornloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 25 games
44%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Qupe · 23 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Mo13ei · 20 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 15 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 12 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 12 games
50%
Luna
Luna
pio65 · 12 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 12 games
33%

Team Bald Reborn

Tusk
Tusk
Pablo · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
ZipZaper · 5 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
bengan · 5 games
20%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ZipZaper · 4 games
25%
Silencer
Silencer
bengan · 4 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
w33 · 3 games
67%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
620 picks · 405 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
547 picks · 528 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 432 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
429 picks · 515 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
378 picks · 377 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
359 picks · 199 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 210 bans
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
318 picks · 476 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 25%
Hero pool strength54% IVY
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total65% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:5
IVY 58%Team Bald Reborn 42%
The model gave 58% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 21:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightpio65
54% · 160 games47% · 260 games
Keeper of the Lightw33
Keeper of the Light
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMo13ei
59% · 177 games50% · 108 games
SniperGorgc
Sniper
Enigma
EnigmaOwnedMe
51% · 175 games45% · 419 games
MarsZipZaper
Mars
Tiny
TinyQupe
53% · 617 games49% · 420 games
TuskPablo
Tusk
Clockwerk
Clockwerkjmn-
51% · 267 games42% · 189 games
Silencerbengan
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed27:35
IVY 57%Team Bald Reborn 43%
The model gave 57% on IVY — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 55:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOwnedMe
51% · 164 games45% · 130 games
Drow RangerGorgc
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMo13ei
57% · 287 games51% · 212 games
Zeusw33
Zeus
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightpio65
46% · 102 games44% · 119 games
Centaur WarrunnerZipZaper
Centaur Warrunner
Tiny
TinyQupe
50% · 494 games52% · 598 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Snapfire
Snapfirejmn-
46% · 327 games56% · 315 games
Undyingbengan
Undying
Game 3prediction correct38:17
IVY 56%Team Bald Reborn 44%
The model gave 56% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 41:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
47% · 289 games54% · 244 games
MorphlingGorgc
Morphling
Weaver
Weaverpio65
46% · 102 games45% · 197 games
Zeusw33
Zeus
Death Prophet
Death ProphetOwnedMe
47% · 323 games54% · 182 games
Primal BeastZipZaper
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyQupe
48% · 587 games52% · 556 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Silencer
Silencerjmn-
49% · 156 games57% · 278 games
Undyingbengan
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 65%
Series resultIVY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3