?
arrow_backBack to match
Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
YNTwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 35 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 19 games
68%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 14 games
64%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 13 games
54%

YNT

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Sand King
Sand King
Malr1ne · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkLord^ · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
dSa · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Dominic · 6 games
33%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
dSa · 6 games
33%
Bane
Bane
dSa · 5 games
60%
Techies
Techies
jesv · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
651 picks · 514 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
476 picks · 703 bans
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
431 picks · 604 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
421 picks · 884 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 416 bans
54%
Zeus
Zeus
289 picks · 389 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
286 picks · 476 bans
52%
Razor
Razor
272 picks · 486 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% IVY
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:45
IVY 53%YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by YNT in 30:37.
Game 2prediction missed18:49
IVY 53%YNT 47%
The model gave 53% on IVY — the game was taken by YNT in 23:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 53%
Series resultYNT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2