DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Jigglinwin 1:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:0
HHabibisloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Jigglin
No games played over 6 months.
Habibis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
391 picks · 495 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 292 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 394 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 552 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 385 bans
Beastmaster
318 picks · 726 bans
Lion
313 picks · 151 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Jigglin
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Jigglin
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:23
Jigglin 83%Habibis 17%
The model gave 83% on Jigglin — the game was taken by Jigglin in 16:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteJigglin · 83%
Series resultJigglin 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1