PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Jigglinwin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HHopebringersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Jigglin
Batrideroften banned
Lelis · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Se · 2 games
Sniperoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Tuskoften banned
Lelis · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Se · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Hopebringers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 539 bans
Muerta
407 picks · 338 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 387 bans
Lion
354 picks · 179 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 582 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 436 bans
Beastmaster
335 picks · 804 bans
Gyrocopter
325 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Jigglin
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Jigglin
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:6
Jigglin 85%Hopebringers 15%
The model gave 85% on Jigglin — the game was taken by Jigglin in 23:11.
Game 2prediction correct
Jigglin 85%Hopebringers 15%
The model gave 85% on Jigglin — the game was taken by Jigglin.
Model check result
Model favoriteJigglin · 85%
Series resultJigglin 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2