Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GGHOSTIKLENOVOwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
JustBetter
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
Focus · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Hoodwink
Astral · 1 game
Luna
Focus · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 1 game
GHOSTIKLENOVO
Dragon Knightoften banned
chempik · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
chempik · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Rubick
lupsione · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
lupsione · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 349 bans
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 326 bans
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 510 bans
Mars
310 picks · 442 bans
Techies
296 picks · 223 bans
Hoodwink
286 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
282 picks · 422 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% JustBetter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% JustBetter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:34
JustBetter 59%GHOSTIKLENOVO 41%
The model gave 59% on JustBetter — the game was taken by GHOSTIKLENOVO in 26:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageFocus
Magnuschempik
Troll WarlordPanda
Batridermangekyou
DoomSkyLark
Tinylupsione
PhoenixAstral
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction missed9:36
JustBetter 60%GHOSTIKLENOVO 40%
The model gave 60% on JustBetter — the game was taken by GHOSTIKLENOVO in 30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaFocus
Kunkkachempik
PuckPanda
Tinylupsione
Primal BeastSkyLark
Enchantressmangekyou
HoodwinkAstral
UndyingSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteJustBetter · 66%
Series resultGHOSTIKLENOVO 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2