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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterloss 0:2
series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

JustBetter

Batrider
Batridersignature
Astral · 6 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 6 games
17%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 5 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 4 games
0%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 19 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 17 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 14 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 13 games
69%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 692 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 198 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
443 picks · 867 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 591 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
419 picks · 184 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
407 picks · 647 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
397 picks · 692 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
397 picks · 309 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 57%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:22
JustBetter 30%MOUZ 70%
The model gave 70% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 17:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawSkyLark
45% · 205 games56% · 87 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Razor
RazorThuG
48% · 118 games49% · 201 game
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordFocus
47% · 71 game52% · 118 games
Keeper of the LightSupream^
Keeper of the Light
Phoenix
PhoenixAstral
42% · 218 games57% · 183 games
SnapfireNARMAN
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
50% · 170 games55% · 193 games
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct10:32
JustBetter 30%MOUZ 70%
The model gave 70% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightThuG
55% · 97 games55% · 124 games
AlchemistUlnit
Alchemist
Ursa
UrsaFocus
43% · 30 games47% · 20 games
ViperForce
Viper
Enigma
EnigmaSkyLark
46% · 55 games57% · 67 games
Queen of PainSupream^
Queen of Pain
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSsaSpartan
47% · 62 games47% · 79 games
Dark WillowNARMAN
Dark Willow
Techies
TechiesAstral
46% · 213 games51% · 167 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 82%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2