?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Sven
Sven
rincyq · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
Mirage · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
aik · 2 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
aik · 2 games
50%

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
38%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 15 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
551 picks · 625 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
492 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
449 picks · 399 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
423 picks · 466 bans
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
409 picks · 851 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 358 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
385 picks · 567 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 535 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:16
Kalmychata 27%4Pirates 73%
The model gave 73% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 35:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerincyq
46% · 218 games47% · 46 games
Drow RangerOtaker
Drow Ranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawmeLes
53% · 179 games50% · 198 games
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Storm Spirit
Earthshaker
Earthshakerxn丶e
51% · 108 games61% · 23 games
Axeмистер мораль
Axe
Ringmaster
Ringmasterjesv
50% · 167 games50% · 163 games
Nature's Prophetariel
Nature's Prophet
49% · 242 games
TuskPERDAN4IK
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed28:30
Kalmychata 26%4Pirates 74%
The model gave 74% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerincyq
40% · 208 games58% · 130 games
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Nature's Prophet
Earthshaker
Earthshakerxn丶e
52% · 110 games40% · 191 game
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnermeLes
46% · 188 games51% · 107 games
Dark Seerмистер мораль
Dark Seer
Pugna
Pugnajesv
47% · 60 games63% · 111 games
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
Naga Siren
63% · 27 games
Axeariel
Axe
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 85%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2