Kalmychata vs 4Pirates — prediction CIS Battle · Dota 2

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CIS Battle · BO3

result vs prediction

Kalmychataloss 0:2

series probability

38%62%

probability at match start · final 0:2

4Pirateswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Svensignature

rincyq · 9 games

67%

Death Prophetoften banned

xn丶e · 8 games

50%

Ringmaster

not me · 7 games

57%

Terrorbladesignature

rincyq · 7 games

71%

Mars

fortniteMan · 6 games

50%

Shadow Fiendsignature

Mirage · 6 games

67%

Axeoften banned

meLes · 5 games

60%

Chaos Knight

Ponlo · 5 games

40%

4Pirates

Pangolieroften banned

NattyNarwhal · 30 games

47%

Shadow Shamanoften banned

PERDAN4IK · 30 games

57%

Nature's Prophetsignature

Otaker · 22 games

68%

Tuskoften banned

PERDAN4IK · 20 games

55%

Snipersignature

NattyNarwhal · 19 games

68%

Jakiro

PERDAN4IK · 17 games

59%

Beastmastersignature

Otaker · 15 games

80%

Bristlebackoften banned

мистер мораль · 15 games

47%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Shadow Shaman

578 picks · 583 bans

54%

Tiny

406 picks · 406 bans

49%

Tusk

375 picks · 397 bans

47%

Pangolier

347 picks · 513 bans

50%

Dark Willow

338 picks · 206 bans

51%

Terrorblade

331 picks · 701 bans

45%

Nature's Prophet

321 picks · 613 bans

54%

Puck

320 picks · 785 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)52% vs 64%

Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates

Head-to-head2 – 1

Model total62% 4Pirates

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct

Kalmychata 38%4Pirates 62%

The model gave 62% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.

Game 2prediction correct14:38

Kalmychata 45%4Pirates 55%

The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 33:58.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

TinyLowskill

50% · 305 games52% · 271 game

DoomOtaker