PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
4Pirateswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
367 picks · 332 bans
Puck
336 picks · 843 bans
Snapfire
319 picks · 163 bans
Pugna
293 picks · 332 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 247 bans
Dawnbreaker
280 picks · 783 bans
Warlock
274 picks · 124 bans
Batrider
271 picks · 686 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total66% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Kalmychata 66%4Pirates 34%
The model gave 66% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction missed6:36
Kalmychata 66%4Pirates 34%
The model gave 66% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 24:04.
Game 3prediction missed26:10
Kalmychata 66%4Pirates 34%
The model gave 66% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 66%
Series result4Pirates 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3