FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 1:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aurumloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 16 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Leshrac
Ethereal · 14 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 13 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 12 games
Aurum
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
303 picks · 193 bans
Puck
295 picks · 658 bans
Dark Willow
261 picks · 112 bans
Tusk
255 picks · 251 bans
Dawnbreaker
251 picks · 608 bans
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 513 bans
Batrider
245 picks · 678 bans
Marci
243 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:6
Kalmychata 72%Aurum 28%
The model gave 72% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EarthshakerEthereal
Disruptorpiro
SpectreWoE
EnigmaAnkou
Shadow DemonHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 84%
Series resultKalmychata 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1