CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Svensignature
rincyq · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
Ringmaster
not me · 7 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 7 games
Mars
fortniteMan · 6 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Mirage · 6 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
aik · 6 games
Axeoften banned
meLes · 5 games
eSpoiled
Marcioften banned
Wein · 11 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 9 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 9 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Batridersignature
Wein · 8 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
581 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 406 bans
Tusk
375 picks · 398 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 513 bans
Dark Willow
338 picks · 206 bans
Terrorblade
332 picks · 700 bans
Nature's Prophet
322 picks · 613 bans
Puck
320 picks · 788 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:18
Kalmychata 55%eSpoiled 45%
The model gave 55% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 40:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeLowskill
Svenssnovv1
Storm Spiritxn丶e
BatriderWein
ViperCorrupted
Pugnaasdekor_r
MarciGilgir
Game 2prediction correct43:23
Kalmychata 60%eSpoiled 40%
The model gave 60% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 37:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshracxn丶e
Lifestealerssnovv1
SvenLowskill
Warlockasdekor_r
AxeCorrupted
MarciWein
Nature's ProphetGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 65%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2