The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Bane
smN · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hina · 2 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
rincyq · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
hina · 1 game
Luna
rincyq · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
rincyq · 1 game
Treant Protector
smN · 1 game
Hydra
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
hina · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
Rubick
xsvampire · 2 games
Abaddon
kur0patbI4 · 1 game
Alchemistoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Anti-Mageoften banned
krylat · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
JANTER · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
489 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
454 picks · 719 bans
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 626 bans
Gyrocopter
427 picks · 402 bans
Batrider
410 picks · 761 bans
Rubick
390 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
359 picks · 1044 bans
Pangolier
356 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Kalmychata 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Game 2prediction missed
Kalmychata 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 53%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2