CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Ringmaster
raregods · 14 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 13 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 11 games
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 9 games
HULIGANI
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
Windranger
mrls · 12 games
Pucksignature
erase · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 10 games
Tinysignature
erase · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
571 picks · 590 bans
Dark Willow
374 picks · 216 bans
Tusk
371 picks · 425 bans
Tiny
357 picks · 352 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 505 bans
Terrorblade
325 picks · 692 bans
Puck
324 picks · 858 bans
Storm Spirit
303 picks · 406 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 29%
Hero pool strength54% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total77% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:40
Kalmychata 38%HULIGANI 62%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistWoE
Medusav1olent-
LeshracEthereal
EarthshakerCorrupted
UndyingAnkou
Nature's ProphetHellscream
Shadow Shamanraregods
Monkey Kingerase
45% · 144 games
WarlockBb3px
Game 2prediction correct17:24
Kalmychata 36%HULIGANI 64%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeWoE
Terrorbladev1olent-
Ember SpiritEthereal
Queen of Painerase
PangolierAnkou
EarthshakerCorrupted
Pugnararegods
Naga SirenBb3px
56% · 38 games
GrimstrokeHellscream
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 77%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2