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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 16 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 16 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 14 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 13 games
62%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 13 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 12 games
75%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
erase · 13 games
31%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
54%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Malik · 12 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Corrupted · 12 games
83%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
493 picks · 533 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
386 picks · 226 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 410 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 879 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 934 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
312 picks · 478 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
310 picks · 289 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
299 picks · 617 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total77% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:22
Kalmychata 38%HULIGANI 62%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetWoE
57% · 171 game51% · 128 games
Doomv1olent-
Doom
Lycan
LycanAnkou
51% · 99 games37% · 46 games
UnderlordBb3px
Underlord
Earthshaker
EarthshakerEthereal
54% · 107 games50% · 84 games
Sand Kingerase
Sand King
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterraregods
53% · 99 games41% · 54 games
Disruptoraik
Disruptor
45% · 164 games
Clockwerkslimeyao
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct13:42
Kalmychata 36%HULIGANI 64%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
48% · 201 game49% · 170 games
Doomv1olent-
Doom
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWoE
53% · 82 games55% · 148 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
48% · 175 games51% · 115 games
MagnusBb3px
Magnus
Pugna
Pugnararegods
51% · 210 games52% · 118 games
Shadow Demonslimeyao
Shadow Demon
45% · 117 games
Warlockaik
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct20:40
Kalmychata 35%HULIGANI 65%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 29:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainEthereal
49% · 143 games43% · 196 games
Terrorbladev1olent-
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaAnkou
45% · 109 games46% · 93 games
Earthshakererase
Earthshaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritWoE
55% · 272 games51% · 92 games
UndyingBb3px
Undying
Dazzle
Dazzleraregods
58% · 66 games57% · 120 games
Pugnaaik
Pugna
45% · 89 games
Disruptorslimeyao
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 77%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3