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DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 1:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:0
HULIGANIloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 19 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
WoE · 17 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 13 games
69%

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 23 games
61%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 19 games
74%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 16 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 14 games
79%
Warlock
Warlock
Bb3px · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
292 picks · 685 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
291 picks · 186 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 640 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
255 picks · 250 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
253 picks · 108 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
249 picks · 213 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
246 picks · 535 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
243 picks · 574 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total63% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:10
Kalmychata 37%HULIGANI 63%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 41:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 63%
Series resultKalmychata 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1