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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

HULIGANI

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
slimeyao · 19 games
37%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
47%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
682 picks · 329 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
554 picks · 588 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
450 picks · 233 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 1106 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 653 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 250 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
340 picks · 346 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
335 picks · 150 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total56% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:37
Kalmychata 56%HULIGANI 44%
The model gave 56% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 51:34.
Game 2prediction missed35:16
Kalmychata 56%HULIGANI 44%
The model gave 56% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:46.
Game 3prediction missed32:33
Kalmychata 56%HULIGANI 44%
The model gave 56% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 48:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 56%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3