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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 17 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 14 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
WoE · 13 games
62%

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 31 game
68%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 31 game
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 31 game
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
slimeyao · 27 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 26 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 26 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
617 picks · 608 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
563 picks · 221 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
533 picks · 710 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 319 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
480 picks · 239 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
461 picks · 548 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 585 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
406 picks · 593 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Kalmychata
Head-to-head4 – 7
Model total55% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:8
Kalmychata 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 37:24.
Game 2prediction correct14:18
Kalmychata 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 27:24.
Game 3prediction correct41:9
Kalmychata 45%HULIGANI 55%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 29:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 55%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3