?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HULIGANIloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 6 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
JANTER · 6 games
17%
Mirana
Mirana
ani-san · 5 games
20%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Ankou · 4 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 4 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
25%

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 28 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 24 games
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
RESPECT · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Mirage · 18 games
39%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sayuw · 16 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Corrupted · 14 games
57%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 14 games
79%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ssnovv1 · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
536 picks · 356 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
473 picks · 264 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
415 picks · 185 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
370 picks · 345 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 528 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
320 picks · 152 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
301 picks · 533 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 296 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total58% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:30
Kalmychata 46%HULIGANI 54%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 51:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangeryowaai
47% · 338 games50% · 460 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Viper
ViperAnkou
50% · 151 game61% · 82 games
Iossnovv1
Io
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEthereal
56% · 377 games50% · 277 games
Batriderelmo^^
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFernans
50% · 228 games41% · 374 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernani-san
52% · 207 games45% · 108 games
Witch DoctorRein
Witch Doctor
Game 2prediction missed31:24
Kalmychata 42%HULIGANI 58%
The model gave 58% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 49:36.
Game 3prediction missed23:13
Kalmychata 48%HULIGANI 52%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 43:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinyowaai
41% · 115 games52% · 139 games
Terrorbladessnovv1
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawAnkou
50% · 215 games49% · 151 game
Nature's ProphetMirage
Nature's Prophet
Viper
ViperEthereal
50% · 161 game52% · 313 games
Centaur Warrunnerelmo^^
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
WindrangerFernans
47% · 384 games54% · 293 games
Rubickqueezy
Rubick
Enchantress
Enchantressani-san
49% · 195 games54% · 174 games
Winter WyvernRein
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 58%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3