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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Most Wantedwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Most Wanted

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tusk
Ponlo · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 10 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
niche · 10 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
423 · 10 games
70%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 9 games
78%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
735 picks · 348 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 637 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
518 picks · 270 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
434 picks · 1176 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
423 picks · 694 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
419 picks · 270 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
413 picks · 442 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
363 picks · 229 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:40
Kalmychata 37%Most Wanted 63%
The model gave 63% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 41:13.
Game 2prediction correct31:42
Kalmychata 37%Most Wanted 63%
The model gave 63% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 44:24.
Game 3prediction correct34:18
Kalmychata 37%Most Wanted 63%
The model gave 63% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 32:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 63%
Series resultMost Wanted 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3