?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Ankou · 13 games
62%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 13 games
54%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xn丶e · 8 games
88%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 17 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 14 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bashka · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
575 picks · 590 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 424 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
355 picks · 361 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 508 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
327 picks · 692 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
322 picks · 858 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
305 picks · 627 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:45
Kalmychata 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 55:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenWoE
41% · 62 games44% · 99 games
Ursazvёzd
Ursa
Lycan
LycanAnkou
62% · 37 games47% · 78 games
Shadow Fiendyoung G
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierEthereal
51% · 217 games52% · 137 games
Primal BeastCovisnine
Primal Beast
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
57% · 65 games43% · 6 games
Skywrath Magexsvampire
Skywrath Mage
49% · 61 game
DisruptorVaniLLl
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed37:22
Kalmychata 46%Nemiga Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosWoE
little data52% · 47 games
Abaddonzvёzd
Abaddon
Undying
UndyingAnkou
52% · 87 games54% · 112 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritEthereal
52% · 46 games43% · 59 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonraregods
47% · 108 games49% · 20 games
DazzleVaniLLl
Dazzle
43% · 3 games
Skywrath Magexsvampire
Skywrath Mage
Game 3prediction missed29:5
Kalmychata 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 32:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistWoE
48% · 105 games40% · 20 games
Zeuszvёzd
Zeus
Monkey King
Monkey KingEthereal
60% · 144 games42% · 150 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Pudge
PudgeAnkou
50% · 8 games44% · 30 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Dazzle
Dazzleraregods
52% · 37 games54% · 91 game
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
71% · 3 games
Spirit BreakerVaniLLl
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 62%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3