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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
kreker · 25 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 22 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 21 game
52%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Crystallize · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
657 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
563 picks · 571 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
416 picks · 221 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1154 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 634 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 260 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 399 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 159 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Kalmychata
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total53% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:10
Kalmychata 53%Passion UA 47%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Passion UA in 33:56.
Game 2prediction missed33:22
Kalmychata 53%Passion UA 47%
The model gave 53% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Passion UA in 39:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 53%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2