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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 1:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Peru Rejectsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 11 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Elmisho · 9 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Elmisho · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Michael · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
616 picks · 253 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
613 picks · 598 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
555 picks · 720 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 324 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
513 picks · 254 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
482 picks · 560 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
451 picks · 429 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 624 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Kalmychata 76%Peru Rejects 24%
The model gave 76% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 76%
Series resultKalmychata 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1