DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 1:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Rrobloxmafialoss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 18 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spirit
WoE · 16 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Leshrac
Ethereal · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 14 games
Svensignature
rincyq · 14 games
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 12 games
robloxmafia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 685 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 258 bans
Dawnbreaker
257 picks · 639 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 531 bans
Disruptor
247 picks · 212 bans
Marci
245 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Kalmychata 72%robloxmafia 28%
The model gave 72% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 72%
Series resultKalmychata 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1