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European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 9 games
67%
Axe
Axesignature
meLes · 8 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
meLes · 7 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
not me · 7 games
57%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 20 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
583 picks · 589 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 392 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 404 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
349 picks · 208 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
328 picks · 708 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
320 picks · 617 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 806 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total85% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:16
Kalmychata 28%Runa Team 72%
The model gave 72% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 37:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistWoE
43% · 101 game54% · 81 game
LifestealerShigetsu
Lifestealer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSerenada
45% · 132 games52% · 242 games
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
Beastmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixAnkou
54% · 253 games56% · 191 game
Monkey Kingnicky`cool
Monkey King
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
40% · 201 game52% · 133 games
WarlockHduo
Warlock
60% · 40 games
Banequeezy
Bane
Game 2prediction missed49:45
Kalmychata 29%Runa Team 71%
The model gave 71% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 52:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWoE
42% · 194 games57% · 100 games
Shadow FiendShigetsu
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSerenada
48% · 173 games54% · 104 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
44% · 115 games57% · 78 games
AxeAlberkaaa
Axe
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
53% · 139 games49% · 199 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
53% · 140 games
SilencerHduo
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 85%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2