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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 32 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 29 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 26 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 24 games
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 23 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 740 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
280 picks · 255 bans
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
273 picks · 173 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
259 picks · 683 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
257 picks · 275 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
250 picks · 243 bans
46%
Marci
Marci
247 picks · 687 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
247 picks · 572 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total61% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:38
Kalmychata 61%Runa Team 39%
The model gave 61% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Runa Team in 39:17.
Game 2prediction missed29:17
Kalmychata 61%Runa Team 39%
The model gave 61% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Runa Team in 33:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 61%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2