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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 34 games
59%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
66%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 31 game
74%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 31 game
45%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 31 game
68%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 28 games
64%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
359 picks · 327 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
335 picks · 836 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
307 picks · 159 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
290 picks · 329 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
281 picks · 781 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
279 picks · 247 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
273 picks · 124 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
267 picks · 689 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total60% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:4
Kalmychata 40%Runa Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 23:56.
Game 2prediction correct26:13
Kalmychata 40%Runa Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 60%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2