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European Pro League Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%

Runa Team

Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 50 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 49 games
61%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 49 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 44 games
66%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 41 game
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 38 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 37 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
740 picks · 349 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
603 picks · 639 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
520 picks · 276 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
437 picks · 1180 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
425 picks · 696 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
422 picks · 268 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 449 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
366 picks · 236 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total76% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:16
Kalmychata 24%Runa Team 76%
The model gave 76% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 36:38.
Game 2prediction correct41:29
Kalmychata 24%Runa Team 76%
The model gave 76% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 48:15.
Game 3prediction correct43:21
Kalmychata 24%Runa Team 76%
The model gave 76% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 38:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 76%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3