?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 12 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axeoften banned
meLes · 10 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
not me · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 10 games
40%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
meLes · 9 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
38%

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
67%
Mars
Mars
fortniteMan · 3 games
33%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 590 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
382 picks · 379 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 421 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
366 picks · 214 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
344 picks · 510 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
339 picks · 709 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 838 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 637 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:51
Kalmychata 56%Team Lynx 44%
The model gave 56% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 52:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWoE
46% · 95 games55% · 91 game
Ursa7jesu
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEthereal
49% · 203 games50% · 198 games
TimbersawfortniteMan
Timbersaw
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
44% · 138 games49% · 248 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Ringmaster
Ringmasterraregods
56% · 101 game
Game 2prediction correct51:28
Kalmychata 57%Team Lynx 43%
The model gave 57% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 43:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendEthereal
42% · 87 games56% · 122 games
Luna7jesu
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWoE
46% · 40 games57% · 172 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierAnkou
48% · 205 games53% · 128 games
TimbersawfortniteMan
Timbersaw
Marci
Marciraregods
44% · 90 games
Game 3prediction correct34:7
Kalmychata 59%Team Lynx 41%
The model gave 59% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 28:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosWoE
little data48% · 42 games
AxefortniteMan
Axe
Leshrac
LeshracEthereal
49% · 63 games57% · 60 games
Invokermellojul
Invoker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
48% · 105 games57% · 106 games
Monkey King7jesu
Monkey King
Dazzle
Dazzleraregods
40% · 40 games
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 64%
Series resultKalmychata 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3