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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%

VP.Prodigy

Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 6 games
33%
Axe
Axe
takizawa · 5 games
20%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
745 picks · 327 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
605 picks · 585 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
598 picks · 302 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
587 picks · 743 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 338 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
540 picks · 523 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
515 picks · 607 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
504 picks · 754 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 35%
Hero pool strength64% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:57
Kalmychata 83%VP.Prodigy 17%
The model gave 83% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 1:00:03.
Game 2prediction missed28:12
Kalmychata 83%VP.Prodigy 17%
The model gave 83% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 26:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 83%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2