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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 0:2
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%

VP.Prodigy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 7 games
57%
Axe
Axe
takizawa · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
626 picks · 260 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
611 picks · 597 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
559 picks · 721 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 324 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
520 picks · 257 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
485 picks · 562 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
460 picks · 434 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 631 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength63% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total88% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:31
Kalmychata 88%VP.Prodigy 12%
The model gave 88% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 43:48.
Game 2prediction missed20:32
Kalmychata 88%VP.Prodigy 12%
The model gave 88% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 39:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 88%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2