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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Ponlo · 4 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mirage · 3 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
meLes · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 2 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
meLes · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mirage · 2 games
50%

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 11 games
55%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 10 games
70%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ififall · 8 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
520 picks · 547 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
442 picks · 489 bans
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
441 picks · 234 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
398 picks · 301 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 360 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
372 picks · 819 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
359 picks · 521 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 529 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:12
Kalmychata 35%Yellow Submarine 65%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerincyq
46% · 289 games55% · 294 games
Doombottega
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmastermeLes
59% · 345 games52% · 218 games
TimbersawInfernal
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxn丶e
48% · 234 games57% · 260 games
Monkey KingMirele
Monkey King
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeraik
43% · 205 games48% · 312 games
Batridermrls
Batrider
Ringmaster
Ringmasternot me
45% · 166 games46% · 155 games
SilencerXakoda
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed39:8
Kalmychata 35%Yellow Submarine 65%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendxn丶e
53% · 132 games43% · 172 games
Medusabottega
Medusa
Axe
AxemeLes
49% · 51 game54% · 161 game
MagnusInfernal
Magnus
Windranger
Windrangerrincyq
47% · 201 game46% · 218 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Tusk
Tuskaik
48% · 404 games56% · 233 games
Muertamrls
Muerta
Ringmaster
Ringmasternot me
53% · 208 games51% · 212 games
Nature's ProphetXakoda
Nature's Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 77%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2