The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Eternity
Tiny
Moonlight · 5 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
CarJua · 4 games
Jakiro
rayy · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
P1 · 3 games
Dazzle
rayy · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
rayy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
719 picks · 570 bans
Puck
502 picks · 1018 bans
Dawnbreaker
494 picks · 655 bans
Marci
479 picks · 811 bans
Winter Wyvern
372 picks · 423 bans
Snapfire
330 picks · 162 bans
Zeus
328 picks · 391 bans
Razor
304 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% KBU.US
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total57% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:48
KBU.US 57%Eternity 43%
The model gave 57% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Eternity in 51:41.
Game 2prediction missed44:20
KBU.US 57%Eternity 43%
The model gave 57% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Eternity in 27:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 57%
Series resultKBU.US 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2