Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Stratyk Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Stratyk Gaming
Drow Rangeroften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
Adrx · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
464 picks · 304 bans
Queen of Pain
423 picks · 524 bans
Weaver
374 picks · 560 bans
Mars
368 picks · 507 bans
Kunkka
293 picks · 492 bans
Spirit Breaker
272 picks · 510 bans
Wraith King
257 picks · 347 bans
Snapfire
254 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Stratyk Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Stratyk Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct55:32
KBU.US 43%Stratyk Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Stratyk Gaming — the game was taken by Stratyk Gaming in 46:39.
Game 2prediction correct48:35
KBU.US 43%Stratyk Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Stratyk Gaming — the game was taken by Stratyk Gaming in 45:14.
Game 3prediction correct49:35
KBU.US 43%Stratyk Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Stratyk Gaming — the game was taken by Stratyk Gaming in 40:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteStratyk Gaming · 57%
Series resultStratyk Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3