Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
KBU.USwin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team DogChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KBU.US
No games played over 6 months.
Team DogChamp
Abaddonoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Hoodwink
lukiluki · 2 games
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 2 games
Dragon Knight
lukiluki · 1 game
Lion
yarintheslayer · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
Bloody Nine · 1 game
Techiesoften banned
yarintheslayer · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
287 picks · 433 bans
Tidehunter
271 picks · 402 bans
Monkey King
265 picks · 676 bans
Bane
261 picks · 195 bans
Weaver
238 picks · 484 bans
Snapfire
226 picks · 125 bans
Lina
213 picks · 477 bans
Void Spirit
213 picks · 254 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% KBU.US
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% KBU.US
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:36
KBU.US 57%Team DogChamp 43%
The model gave 57% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 44:48.
Game 2prediction missed28:24
KBU.US 57%Team DogChamp 43%
The model gave 57% on KBU.US — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 41:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteKBU.US · 57%
Series resultKBU.US 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2