Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionKKebab-enjoyerswin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Blinkloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kebab-enjoyers
Doomoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Team Blink
Silencer
smN · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
smN · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
smN · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Elder Titan
smN · 1 game
Mirana
smN · 1 game
Ogre Magi
smN · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
786 picks · 540 bans
Tiny
563 picks · 397 bans
Tusk
528 picks · 437 bans
Treant Protector
525 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
438 picks · 714 bans
Death Prophet
406 picks · 791 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 845 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Team Blink
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Kebab-enjoyers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:31
Kebab-enjoyers 52%Team Blink 48%
The model gave 52% on Kebab-enjoyers — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetTheBloodySky
SlarkkAAN
42% · 39 games
SilencersmN
Game 2prediction correct38:41
Kebab-enjoyers 49%Team Blink 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Blink — the game was taken by Team Blink in 57:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetTheBloodySky
Drow RangerkAAN
62% · 90 games
MiranasmN
Game 3prediction missed34:16
Kebab-enjoyers 49%Team Blink 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Blink — the game was taken by Kebab-enjoyers in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomTheBloodySky
MorphlingkAAN
52% · 54 games
Treant ProtectorsmN
Model check result
Model favoriteKebab-enjoyers · 50%
Series resultKebab-enjoyers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3