Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KEFTEMEloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ERTENKELEMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KEFTEME
No games played over 6 months.
ERTENKELEM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
791 picks · 532 bans
Tiny
561 picks · 403 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
529 picks · 572 bans
Nature's Prophet
429 picks · 699 bans
Snapfire
402 picks · 293 bans
Death Prophet
396 picks · 775 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 828 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% KEFTEME
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% KEFTEME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:30
KEFTEME 53%ERTENKELEM 47%
The model gave 53% on KEFTEME — the game was taken by ERTENKELEM in 32:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkPLOV
Treant ProtectorMuka
Hoodwinkkickeed
Miranasunset
Game 2prediction missed27:40
KEFTEME 56%ERTENKELEM 44%
The model gave 56% on KEFTEME — the game was taken by ERTENKELEM in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectrePLOV
Shadow Demonsunset
Silencerkickeed
TuskMuka
Model check result
Model favoriteKEFTEME · 60%
Series resultERTENKELEM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2