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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVwin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9Pandasloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 8 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
ELeVeN · 7 games
71%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 6 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 6 games
67%

9Pandas

Mars
Marsoften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
40%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Solo · 13 games
38%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 10 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
RAMZES666 · 9 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 9 games
78%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
kiyotaka · 9 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
RAMZES666 · 8 games
38%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
DarkLord^ · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
485 picks · 775 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 707 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
441 picks · 349 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
439 picks · 930 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 584 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
427 picks · 191 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
416 picks · 200 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 52%
Hero pool strength52% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:22
KEV 45%9Pandas 55%
The model gave 55% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by KEV in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
50% · 216 games50% · 228 games
MorphlingDarkLord^
Morphling
Sven
Svenflyfly
47% · 206 games54% · 191 game
Timbersawkiyotaka
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterELeVeN
47% · 194 games53% · 193 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
TechiesUndyne_
49% · 482 games46% · 298 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
57% · 188 games
Crystal MaidenSolo
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct13:26
KEV 44%9Pandas 56%
The model gave 56% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 34:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenflyfly
50% · 166 games50% · 154 games
MorphlingDarkLord^
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightButterflyEffect
50% · 172 games54% · 20 games
Outworld Destroyerkiyotaka
Outworld Destroyer
Tidehunter
TidehunterELeVeN
50% · 171 game52% · 196 games
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeUndyne_
48% · 168 games47% · 169 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
53% · 138 games
PugnaSolo
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct34:11
KEV 52%9Pandas 48%
The model gave 52% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 36:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerflyfly
56% · 63 games50% · 108 games
MorphlingDarkLord^
Morphling
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerButterflyEffect
51% · 41 game48% · 53 games
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Kunkka
Death Prophet
Death ProphetELeVeN
48% · 107 games43% · 76 games
Windrangerkiyotaka
Windranger
Disruptor
DisruptorUndyne_
55% · 136 games49% · 58 games
GyrocopterEkki
Gyrocopter
50% · 52 games
Vengeful SpiritSolo
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 57%
Series resultKEV 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3