KEV vs MAG.Yolo — prediction ELЗК · Dota 2

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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

KEVwin 2:0

series probability

52%48%

probability at match start · final 2:0

MAG.Yololoss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

No games played over 6 months.

MAG.Yolo

Batrideroften banned

czy · 2 games

50%

Enchantressoften banned

出省 · 2 games

100%

Lunaoften banned

RA1NCLOUD · 2 games

Medusaoften banned

RA1NCLOUD · 2 games

100%

Techies

czy · 2 games

50%

Vengeful Spirit

出省 · 2 games

50%

Clockwerk

出省 · 1 game

Faceless Voidoften banned

RA1NCLOUD · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

380 picks · 347 bans

52%

Vengeful Spirit

334 picks · 324 bans

51%

Centaur Warrunner

327 picks · 504 bans

56%

Mars

311 picks · 432 bans

55%

Techies

292 picks · 214 bans

54%

Hoodwink

282 picks · 161 bans

51%

Pangolier

279 picks · 423 bans

51%

Batrider

273 picks · 506 bans

56%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%

Hero pool strength50% MAG.Yolo

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total52% KEV

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct24:23

KEV 52%MAG.Yolo 48%

The model gave 52% on KEV — the game was taken by KEV in 54:06.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo