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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVloss 0:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 7 games
57%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Undyne_ · 6 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Omniknight
Omniknightsignature
ELeVeN · 6 games
83%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 6 games
50%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ELeVeN · 6 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
flyfly · 6 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
40%

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Malik · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 13 games
38%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
481 picks · 774 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
446 picks · 706 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
439 picks · 347 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 581 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
436 picks · 926 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
423 picks · 189 bans
56%
Lion
Lion
414 picks · 357 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 198 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% KEV
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:41
KEV 31%PSG Quest 69%
The model gave 69% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 48:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerflyfly
53% · 142 games53% · 46 games
Troll WarlordTA2000
Troll Warlord
Brewmaster
BrewmasterELeVeN
47% · 141 game55% · 120 games
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskButterflyEffect
43% · 161 game49% · 145 games
KunkkaMalik
Kunkka
Pugna
PugnaUndyne_
52% · 219 games49% · 224 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
52% · 128 games
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct8:34
KEV 33%PSG Quest 67%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 29:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracButterflyEffect
58% · 151 game49% · 59 games
Dragon KnightMalik
Dragon Knight
Windranger
Windrangerflyfly
47% · 165 games36% · 20 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Omniknight
OmniknightELeVeN
61% · 25 games54% · 83 games
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
Keeper of the Light
Pudge
PudgeUndyne_
47% · 43 games43% · 161 game
RubickOmaR
Rubick
49% · 61 game
GyrocopterDukalis
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 81%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2