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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
KEVloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Zerowin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

KEV

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
ELeVeN · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 4 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Undyne_ · 3 games
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
flyfly · 3 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
67%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Undyne_ · 3 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 3 games
100%

Team Zero

Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BEYOND · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
iceice · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
zzq · 8 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 7 games
57%
Muerta
Muertasignature
iceice · 6 games
83%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
BEYOND · 6 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
7e · 5 games
80%
Jakiro
Jakiro
zzq · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 355 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 569 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
347 picks · 336 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 521 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
339 picks · 263 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
324 picks · 645 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 188 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
300 picks · 302 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% KEV
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% Team Zero
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:33
KEV 49%Team Zero 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Zero — the game was taken by KEV in 48:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracButterflyEffect
48% · 100 games53% · 101 game
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
Faceless Void
Alchemist
Alchemistflyfly
50% · 155 games52% · 131 game
Timbersaw7e
Timbersaw
Omniknight
OmniknightELeVeN
59% · 23 games49% · 109 games
MarsBEYOND
Mars
Techies
TechiesUndyne_
47% · 353 games51% · 125 games
LionPonlo
Lion
50% · 165 games
Terrorbladezzq
Terrorblade
Game 2prediction correct34:44
KEV 49%Team Zero 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Zero — the game was taken by Team Zero in 1:00:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckButterflyEffect
49% · 189 games55% · 114 games
Slarkpoyoyo
Slark
Sven
Svenflyfly
52% · 155 games47% · 73 games
RazorBEYOND
Razor
Brewmaster
BrewmasterELeVeN
46% · 129 games46% · 170 games
Primal Beast7e
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenUndyne_
55% · 144 games48% · 144 games
TinyPonlo
Tiny
52% · 116 games
Nature's Prophetzzq
Nature's Prophet
Game 3prediction missed27:47
KEV 51%Team Zero 49%
The model gave 51% on KEV — the game was taken by Team Zero in 43:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeflyfly
57% · 201 game49% · 118 games
Lunapoyoyo
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
51% · 302 games44% · 115 games
Centaur WarrunnerBEYOND
Centaur Warrunner
Timbersaw
TimbersawELeVeN
49% · 281 game54% · 72 games
Razor7e
Razor
Pudge
PudgeUndyne_
47% · 47 games46% · 381 game
RubickPonlo
Rubick
49% · 145 games
Crystal Maidenzzq
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Zero · 51%
Series resultTeam Zero 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3