Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Alliance.LATAMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 17 games
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 11 games
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
Pucksignature
Sooths · 9 games
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 9 games
Visagesignature
Tavo · 9 games
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Clockwerk
Kingrd · 7 games
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
356 picks · 339 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 331 bans
Mirana
256 picks · 254 bans
Rubick
245 picks · 188 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 149 bans
Pangolier
182 picks · 501 bans
Snapfire
181 picks · 104 bans
Silencer
175 picks · 196 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Alliance.LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:15
Keyd Stars 50%Alliance.LATAM 50%
The model gave 50% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 45:23.
Game 2prediction missed38:13
Keyd Stars 50%Alliance.LATAM 50%
The model gave 50% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 32:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance.LATAM · 50%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2