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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infamous.Rloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 10 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4dr · 8 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
FCR · 8 games
88%
Marci
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 7 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Kingrd · 7 games
57%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Kingrd · 7 games
57%

Infamous.R

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
788 picks · 531 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
559 picks · 403 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
537 picks · 439 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
529 picks · 571 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
430 picks · 704 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
402 picks · 294 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
395 picks · 781 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 827 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Infamous.R
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:22
Keyd Stars 45%Infamous.R 55%
The model gave 55% on Infamous.R — the game was taken by Infamous.R in 28:25.
Game 2prediction missed33:22
Keyd Stars 45%Infamous.R 55%
The model gave 55% on Infamous.R — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 43:03.
Game 3prediction missed20:14
Keyd Stars 45%Infamous.R 55%
The model gave 55% on Infamous.R — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 36:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous.R · 55%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3