Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Klim Sani4win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 12 games
Tusk
Kingrd · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 8 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
KJ · 8 games
Pugnasignature
KJ · 8 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Brewmasteroften banned
FCR · 7 games
Clockwerk
KJ · 7 games
Klim Sani4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
269 picks · 350 bans
Dark Willow
240 picks · 113 bans
Treant Protector
222 picks · 479 bans
Phoenix
207 picks · 308 bans
Muerta
203 picks · 305 bans
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 413 bans
Vengeful Spirit
196 picks · 191 bans
Pangolier
192 picks · 360 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Klim Sani4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:26
Keyd Stars 47%Klim Sani4 53%
The model gave 53% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 37:54.
Game 2prediction correct20:40
Keyd Stars 47%Klim Sani4 53%
The model gave 53% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 34:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteKlim Sani4 · 53%
Series resultKlim Sani4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2