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Фиджитал игры · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Matreshka Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
KJ · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Kingrd · 13 games
69%
Medusa
Medusasignature
hFn · 10 games
100%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Kingrd · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Sooths · 9 games
78%
Visage
Visagesignature
Tavo · 9 games
78%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 8 games
75%
Marci
Marcisignature
Kingrd · 8 games
63%

Matreshka Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Retsu · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Lagoona · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
462 picks · 305 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
461 picks · 452 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 402 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
330 picks · 327 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
314 picks · 365 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
279 picks · 143 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
254 picks · 636 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
240 picks · 605 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength60% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:41
Keyd Stars 58%Matreshka Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 1:02:00.
Game 2prediction correct18:36
Keyd Stars 58%Matreshka Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 43:03.
Game 3prediction correct25:42
Keyd Stars 58%Matreshka Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 40:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 58%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3