Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starswin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NnoMERCYloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Keyd Stars
Snapfire
KJ · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 8 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Kingrd · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
Marsoften banned
4dr · 6 games
Mirana
KJ · 6 games
noMERCY
Treant Protectoroften banned
555k · 11 games
Tiny
Zxca · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
drakeel · 7 games
Visagesignature
drakeel · 7 games
Clockwerk
555k · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
555k · 5 games
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
756 picks · 626 bans
Disruptor
614 picks · 534 bans
Beastmaster
548 picks · 1336 bans
Doom
545 picks · 1075 bans
Techies
467 picks · 509 bans
Pangolier
466 picks · 968 bans
Ember Spirit
461 picks · 1170 bans
Enchantress
448 picks · 641 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:9
Keyd Stars 58%noMERCY 42%
The model gave 58% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingCostabile
LunaMnz
Storm Spirit4nalog
Void SpiritMr.Jeans
VisageFCR
TimbersawBenjaz
Bounty HunterKingrd
MarciElmisho
PugnaKJ
Crystal MaidenYadomi
Game 2prediction correct31:14
Keyd Stars 60%noMERCY 40%
The model gave 60% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightCostabile
AbaddonMnz
Windranger4nalog
Storm SpiritMr.Jeans
MagnusFCR
Legion CommanderBenjaz
TechiesKingrd
MarciElmisho
SilencerKJ
PugnaYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 64%
Series resultKeyd Stars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2