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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Keyd Starsloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NoPing VPNwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Keyd Stars

Snapfire
Snapfire
KJ · 14 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4dr · 11 games
45%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
KJ · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kingrd · 8 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Kingrd · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Tavo · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
4dr · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Tavo · 7 games
86%

NoPing VPN

Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 10 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
sl4d1n- · 9 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silencer
Accel · 7 games
43%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oscar · 7 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
sl4d1n- · 5 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
700 picks · 493 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
564 picks · 502 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
564 picks · 1094 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
559 picks · 605 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1217 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1040 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
459 picks · 918 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 669 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Keyd Stars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Keyd Stars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:32
Keyd Stars 59%NoPing VPN 41%
The model gave 59% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 33:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCostabile
51% · 75 games43% · 109 games
AlchemisthFn
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit4nalog
49% · 205 games54% · 94 games
Underlorddrakeel
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfireFCR
54% · 404 games51% · 586 games
RubickZxca
Rubick
Tusk
TuskKingrd
51% · 356 games49% · 382 games
UndyingYor
Undying
Pugna
PugnaKJ
49% · 131 game
Game 2prediction correct33:12
Keyd Stars 58%NoPing VPN 42%
The model gave 58% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by Keyd Stars in 23:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCostabile
49% · 83 games50% · 111 games
AlchemisthFn
Alchemist
Windranger
Windranger4nalog
44% · 91 game49% · 188 games
Dawnbreakerdrakeel
Dawnbreaker
Snapfire
SnapfireFCR
62% · 145 games54% · 203 games
TechiesZxca
Techies
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterKingrd
39% · 39 games51% · 27 games
Elder TitanYor
Elder Titan
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
46% · 171 game
Game 3prediction missed
Keyd Stars 62%NoPing VPN 38%
The model gave 62% on Keyd Stars — the game was taken by NoPing VPN.
Model check result
Model favoriteKeyd Stars · 62%
Series resultNoPing VPN 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3