Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs prediction
Khanwin 1:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TGTeam Generationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Khan
Nyx Assassinoften banned
goddam · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Chen
antoha · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
layme · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Team Generation
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
439 picks · 183 bans
Hoodwink
334 picks · 128 bans
Nyx Assassin
313 picks · 627 bans
Puck
311 picks · 678 bans
Ancient Apparition
304 picks · 467 bans
Mars
294 picks · 521 bans
Dragon Knight
271 picks · 344 bans
Lina
261 picks · 357 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Khan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Generation
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:18
Khan 41%Team Generation 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Generation — the game was taken by Khan in 32:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Generation · 59%
Series resultKhan 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1