Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
Khanloss 0:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TTropicThunderwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Khan
Marsoften banned
chshrct · 14 games
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
Dodren · 11 games
Bane
antoha · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Dodren · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
layme · 9 games
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
TropicThunder
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
271 picks · 403 bans
Tidehunter
266 picks · 393 bans
Monkey King
260 picks · 639 bans
Bane
243 picks · 180 bans
Weaver
222 picks · 418 bans
Lina
219 picks · 476 bans
Lion
211 picks · 109 bans
Void Spirit
207 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% TropicThunder
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Khan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Khan 59%TropicThunder 41%
The model gave 59% on Khan — the game was taken by TropicThunder in 39:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautlayme
Anti-MageWoE
Razorchshrct
TidehunterMax
Void SpiritWorick
Disruptorlilskrip
Spirit Breakergoddam
IoAoharide
Model check result
Model favoriteKhan · 67%
Series resultTropicThunder 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1